ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for BYU and Utah in the Big 12 Conference is promising. Both teams are expected to be competitive, with BYU projected to be a top contender for the conference title and a potential College Football Playoff (CFP) participant.
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 places them at No. 20 nationally and second in the Big 12. This is a significant improvement from last year, when they were projected for 8.0 wins and a 12.6% chance of making the CFP. The Cougars finished the 2025 season with 11 wins, a loss in the Big 12 championship, and a final ranking of No. 11. This year, they are projected to win 8.7 games, with a 93.1% chance of achieving bowl eligibility and a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12.
One of the key factors in BYU's success is their strength of schedule, which is ranked ninth in the Big 12. Last year, they had the 74th-ranked schedule, but this year, they host notable opponents like Notre Dame and Arizona. The Cougars' non-conference schedule includes a home game against No. 3 Notre Dame on October 17, which could significantly impact their FPI ranking.
In terms of conference play, BYU's highest-rated opponent is Utah, who are ranked No. 31 in the FPI. The Cougars will face the Utes in Salt Lake City on November 7, providing an early test for both teams. BYU's other notable home opponents include No. 34 Arizona, who will visit on September 12.
Utah, on the other hand, has an FPI score of 8.5, ranking them No. 31 nationally and third in the Big 12. This is a slight improvement from last year, when they were projected for 6.4 wins and a 67.3% chance of bowl eligibility. The Utes exceeded expectations, finishing 11-2 and ranked in the top 15.
Utah's strength of schedule is ranked 13th in the Big 12, which is favorable for a team returning key players. However, they will not face the conference's highest-ranked team, No. 10 Texas Tech, and their highest-rated Big 12 opponent is BYU, ranked No. 20. The Utes' non-conference schedule includes a home game against No. 47 Arkansas from the SEC on September 12.
The FPI predictions highlight the potential for both BYU and Utah to have successful seasons in the Big 12. BYU's improved schedule and strong FPI ranking suggest they could be a dark horse contender, while Utah's consistent performance and favorable schedule indicate they could be a top-tier team in the conference.
These projections also underscore the competitive nature of the Big 12, with both teams having a realistic chance of making the CFP and contending for the conference title. As the season unfolds, the Cougars and Utes will look to live up to these expectations and make their mark in college football.
